ICSG expects Copper surplus to persist – ING
|In its latest forecasts, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) expects the global Copper market to see a supply surplus of 289kt in 2025, largely on higher mine supply and rising smelting capacity, compared to the 194kt of surplus projected earlier and 138kt of surplus seen last year. However, the surplus is expected to ease slightly to 209kt in 2026 amid a continued demand recovery, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
China's demand surges as US tariffs redirect Copper flows
"On the supply side, global mine production is expected to grow by 2.3% year-on-year this year and by a further 2.5% YoY in 2026 following the additions from new mines. Global refined output is projected to increase by 2.9% YoY this year and 1.5% in 2026, primarily due to the continued expansion of Chinese capacity and the start-up of new capacity in other countries, most notably Indonesia, India and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Total apparent refined Copper consumption is forecasted to increase by 2.4% YoY in 2025 and would see a further expansion of 1.8% YoY in 2026, with Asian nations driving most of the demand growth."
"Recent data from Shanghai Metals Market shows that the Yangshan Copper premium continued to expand and stood at $94/t (the highest level since 18 December 2023) as of 29 April, compared to just $35/t at the end of February. This rise was largely driven by market tightness, supported by strong domestic demand and declining exchange inventories. The threats of recent US Copper tariffs have driven a large flow of Copper into the US. Chinese warehouse inventories fell by 54,858 tonnes for a fifth consecutive week to 116,753 tonnes as of last Friday."
"The latest LME COTR report released yesterday shows that speculators decreased their net long position in Copper by 3,529 lots to 64,806 lots for the week ending 25 April, the lowest since the week ending 17 January 2025. Similarly, net bullish bets for aluminium fell by 1,649 lots for an eighth consecutive week to 79,412 lots at the end of last week. This is the lowest net long since 15 September 2023. Meanwhile, money managers increased net bullish bets for zinc by 772 lots after declining for five consecutive weeks to 4,339 lots as of last Friday."
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.