Goldman Sachs assesses a 1/4 chance of US recession over the next two years
|Goldman Sachs’ economists out with a latest note on Monday, assessing the risk of a recession for the US.
Key Points:
We find that many pre-WW2 recessions originated in the financial sector, many post-WW2 recessions were caused by oil shocks and monetary policy tightening, and sentiment-driven swings in borrowing and investment led to recessions in both eras.
Some common contributors to past recessions look less worrisome today.
The dominant cause of post-war US recessions-rapid rate hikes in response to high inflation, often boosted by oil shocks-is less threatening today due to the anchoring of inflation expectations and the rise of shale
GS assesses a 1/4 chance of recession over the next two years
Somewhat below the unconditional probability over two years of 1/3 since 1980
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.