Fed's Goolsbee: shouldn't get carried away with a single month of data
|President of the Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) Austan D. Goolsbee noted on Thursday that a single month of inflation data is not enough to hinge an entire monetary policy decision on.
Key highlights
- Even with January PCE data showing a good rebound, we should be cautious about extrapolating.
- Fed has made substantial progress on long-term inflation.
- We need to be careful with arguments suggesting the supply chain is fixed, and we should not expect further benefit in 2024.
- Lags on labor supply shocks are probably long.
- Fed's Goolsbee continues to focus on why housing inflation hasn't come down more.
- If substantial productivity growth continues, that would have an impact on monetary policy.
- Impacts of supply shock in inflation takes time, suggests benefits of supply chain on disinflation are still to come.
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