EUR/NOK to surge above 11.80 if Norges Bank announces the end of the rate cycle now – Commerzbank
|What is Norges Bank going to do? Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerbaank, analyzes Krone’s outlook ahead of the Interest Rate Decision.
NOK likely to remain under downside pressure due to the weak oil price
As the market hardly sees the possibility of a rate hike today Norges Bank leaving everything unchanged is unlikely to affect NOK much. Principally it is likely to remain under downside pressure due to the weak oil price.
If Norges Bank maintains the option to hike its key rate again that would be a positive signal for NOK. If, on the other hand, it already announces the end of the rate cycle now – which I do not expect as inflation remains well above the inflation target of 2% and the economy remains quite resilient despite the previous rate hikes – this would be a negative signal for NOK and might push in EUR/NOK above 11.80 again.
We should keep an eye on the ECB rate decision today though. If ECB chair Christine Lagarde confirms the market’s rate cut expectations the EUR side might ensure that the cross eases well below the 11.70 mark.
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