EUR/GBP: Last chance to short GBP for a while if ECB adopts the “hawkish hold” position – SocGen
|Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes EUR/GBP outlook ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday.
Thursday’s ECB meeting is a bigger driver of EUR/GBP than UK rate expectations
UK labour market data paint a picture of rising unemployment, and rising wages. That’s not unusual – wage data will lag the employment series – but while it won’t prevent the market growing in confidence the next 25 bps hike (to 5 ½%) will be the last of this cycle.
In the very near term, Thursday’s ECB meeting is a bigger driver of EUR/GBP than UK rate expectations, but we expect falls in both monthly GDP and manufacturing output (for July) when data are released on Wednesday. If the ECB adopts the ‘hawkish hold’ position, that could be the last chance to short GBP for a while.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.