ECB: Practically no chance to introduce new initiatives - BBH
|According to the research team at BBH, after having adjustment policy last month, there seems to be practically no chance that the ECB introduces new initiatives.
Key Quotes
“Draghi's presentation may be ho-hum. The eurozone economy has evolved in line with the ECB's expectations. Investors will be most interested learning Draghi and the ECB's take on the stronger than expected rise in CPI. Recall headline CPI jumped to 1.1% in the preliminary estimate in December from 0.6% in November. It is expected to be confirmed the day before the ECB meets. Draghi can be expected to resist ideas such as those suggested by German Finance Minister Schaeuble that it is time to reconsider the thrust of monetary policy. If it were up to officials like Schaeuble, the policy would not have been implemented in the first place.”
“The first inkling that policy is indeed working is not the time to pullback, Draghi may say. In addition to cautioning against jumping to conclusions based on one month's data, he may note that the rise in headline measures is primarily the result of energy prices. The core rate increased to 0.9% in the preliminary estimate for December. The cyclical low was 0.6%. Pressure is likely to mount until the updated staff forecasts in March. Note that the base effect warns of additional gains in CPI. Last January's 1.4% decline (month-over-month) will drop out of the year-over-year comparison. Despite the increase in price pressures, inflation expectations remain deflated. The German 10-year breakeven is a little below 1.3%.”
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