China: Growth downgraded – Standard Chartered
|Economists at Standard Chartered Bank have updated their Chinese growth forecast cutting it, although they expect a recovery in Q2 as coronavirus will be contained by March. USD/CNY is sitting at 6.989.
Key quotes
“We cut our 2020 growth forecast to 5.5% from 5.8% to reflect a longer delay in production.”
“The government may set its 2020 growth target at around 6%, while allowing flexibility in measuring growth performance. Fiscal support may be substantial, with aggressive budget implementation and a greater focus on infrastructure spending.”
“Our core scenario is that coronavirus will be contained by late March, paving the way for a Q2 recovery.”
“If the epidemic is not contained by end-March as our base case assumes, the central bank may consider cutting the benchmark deposit rate.”
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