Brexit vote is an attack on the EU - BBH
|Research Team at BBH, suggests that the Brexit vote is an attack on the EU and is a blow whose magnitude is still not fully clear.
Key Quotes
“This is the time that some countries may press for an advantage. Perhaps it is a concession about this year's budget. A new government in Spain may find a somewhat more pliant EC. Alternatively, maybe it is a favorable ruling on the implementation of the Bank Resolution and Reconstruction Directive, that some are advocating. It could be some other issue, like where the European Investment Bank should be headquartered now that it cannot be in the UK. London will likely lose its critical passporting rights when it leaves the single market. How can a country secure some of this business?
There may be wide recognition that the EU needs to revise its vision, but that is where the consensus ends. French and Polish officials have called for treaty changes. Merkel and others oppose taking dramatic action. Given the vast constellation of political forces, sentiment, the state of the economy and the labor market, and the divisiveness of immigration, opening up the treaties now could provide an opening for the variant of populism that appears to be rising everywhere. It would begin a process whose outcome could be unpredictable and uncontrollable.
There are two axes confronting Europe. One is about more or less integration. The other is about more or less democracy. Even if many of us got it wrong in the end, policymakers have developed contingency plans. The EU summit will see these play out. The meeting of the foreign ministers from the original EU founders (Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg) over the weekend seemed to strike the wrong chord.”
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