Gold tests key resistance level that could signal the next bullish phase
|- Gold is up over 60% year-to-date, surpassing $4,340 an ounce and outperforming both the M2 money supply and Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin approaches a $2 trillion market cap and its 365-day moving average at $100,000.
- Bitcoin is 40% below its Gold-denominated all-time high.
Gold, the world’s first-ever $30 trillion asset, has exceeded expectations in 2025, rising more than 60% year-to-date to trading at approximately $4,340 per ounce.
One way to assess gold’s strength is by measuring its performance relative to the M2 money supply. (M2 refers to a broad measure of money in circulation, including cash, checking deposits, savings accounts).
Since its 2022 bottom, gold has gained roughly 150% against M2. However, it is now approaching historically significant levels last seen during the peaks of 2011 and 1974. This could suggest that the current rally is nearing a top.
On the other hand, it may also indicate that the bull market has much further to run. For example, during the 1970's stagflationary cycle, gold surged an additional 180% against the M2 money supply before reaching its ultimate peak.
BTCUSD/Gold (tradingView)
Gold vs Bitcoin performance
Gold’s outperformance extends beyond the money supply. The gold/bitcoin ratio is now up around 50% year-to-date.
Bitcoin is now priced at approximately 24 ounces per BTC, around 40% below its all-time high set in December 2024. Additionally, bitcoin’s total market capitalization now represents about 7% of gold’s total market value.
Bitcoin is approaching a market cap of $2 trillion, which corresponds to a price level of roughly $100,000. This price also aligns closely with its 365-day moving average (365DMA).
The 365DMA calculates the average closing price of an asset over the previous 365 days, helping to identify long-term trends and potential support or resistance levels.
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