Crypto rebounds as Oil dips on Trump comments, but derivatives signal weak conviction

• Bitcoin and ether climbed modestly, while altcoins like algorand jumped sharply, leading broader market gains.
• Futures data shows rising volume but flat open interest, indicating the rally lacks strong leveraged conviction.
• Elevated leverage in ETH and ZEC raises the risk of a pullback if macro sentiment shifts against recent optimism.

Crypto markets rallied on Wednesday as oil momentarily slipped below $100 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump said the war in Iran will end in "two to three weeks."

Bitcoin trades at $68,500 having risen by 0.4% since midnight UTC and 3.1% over the past 24 hours, while ether (ETH) is back at $2,130 after a brief stint below $2,000 last week.

The broader crypto market remains in a downtrend dating back to October, although sentiment has shifted slightly following a period of consolidation between $62,500 and $75,000 since early February.

A selection of altcoins have performed particularly well, notably algorand (ALGO), which is up by 22% in the past 24 hours as it bounces back from oversold territory.

Derivatives positioning

• The crypto futures market appears to be churning rather than building clear directional positions, as trading volumes have risen 23% to $210 million over the past 24 hours, while open interest has remained broadly stable at around $106 billion.
• Open interest in major USD- and USDT-denominated futures has clearly diverged from BTC’s recovery from the weekend low of around $65,000. This suggests the rebound is not being driven by a meaningful buildup in leveraged positions, but rather by spot demand or short covering, pointing to a lack of strong conviction behind the move.
• Ether's OI has risen slightly alongside its spot price, signaling participation from leveraged traders.
• ETH and ZEC stand out as major coins with positive OI-adjusted CVD and funding rate. This combination points to aggressive bidding in the futures market, with traders actively opening long positions and paying a premium to maintain them.
• The market for ADA, XMR, BCH and SHIB suggests otherwise.
• Bitcoin and Ether implied volatility indices continue to present a picture of calm.
• On Deribit, risk reversals continue to show a bias for BTC and ETH put options, which offer protection against price slides. Bearishness is slightly more pronounced in BTC options.

Token talk

• The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) was the best-performing benchmark on Wednesday, rising by 2.7% since midnight UTC while the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC) and the DeFi Select Index (DFX) are up by 1.5% apiece.
• The bitcoin and major-dominant CoinDesk 5 (CD5) and CoinDesk 20 (CD20) have increased by 0.35% and 0.69% respectively, indicating underperformance against the wider altcoin market.
• Algorand (ALGO) led the market gains on Wednesday but it was closely followed by decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens MORPHO and JUP, which posted double digit gains.
• A disproportionate rise in open interest for assets like ETH and ZEC suggests the recent move has been backed by leverage as opposed to spot buying, which could unwind in news to the contrary of Trump's statement is released this week.