Bitcoin bull Tom Lee: Crypto winter is over

• Fundstrat identified 11 signs that take place only in a bull market.
• BTC’s standard deviation from the S&P 500 could push it higher.

Longtime Bitcoin bull Tom Lee told CNBC that the crypto winter is over and the bull market is back. Lee, a managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said:

“Last year was a terrible year for crypto, a massive bear market, and we published a piece this week just highlighting … 11 signs that historically only take place in a bull market. So I think the evidence is mounting that there’s a bull market.” 

Some of these positive signs, as per Lee, are as follows:

• In January, the trading volumes on the blockchain turned positive year over year. The turmoil in Venezuela and Turkey helped this.
• In April, Bitcoin closed above its 200-day moving average.
• Fundstrat’s survey of over-the-counter brokers showed that activity levels based on the number of clients saw a 60% to 70% increase and that trading per client surged.
• Shrinking supply.
• A positive swing in Fundstrat’s “misery index.”
• Consensus among long-time Bitcoin bulls that the market has bottomed out.
• The recent golden cross on Bitcoin.

Lee had earlier predicted the 2019 bull market in March. He added that BTC’s standard deviation from the S&P 500, could help it push higher:

“One thing to keep in mind is whenever the S&P has made a big move, ... it’s almost always led to a big move in crypto later in the year,” he said. “So I think … a 2.5 standard deviation move for bitcoin would take it to $14,000. I’m not saying that’s where it’s going to go, but that’s the magnitude of move that would be a catch-up.”

Bitcoin traded in a wide range Friday on account of weakness in the broader cryptocurrency market, settling in roughly the $5,100 per coin range. Lee noted in a Friday call with CNBC that tether’s issues don’t have “much effect on bitcoin,” since most people are “long tether because [they] don’t want to be long bitcoin.”