Analysis

Will BoJ spark FTSE back to life?

•       FTSE flatlining as Crude crumbles
•       Markets await BoJ meeting to make move
•       Eurozone confidence blossoms amid Brexit talk

An unsurprisingly indecisive session in Europe has seen the likes of the FTSE largely flatlining as traders reduced their risk overnight ahead of the week’s risk event from the BoJ. Commodities have enjoyed a particularly volatile second half of this week, with Crude continuing to tumble heavily on a global supply glut alongside evidence that fund managers are heavily shorting crude prices.

Tonight’s BoJ meeting has been the focal point of the week despite yesterday’s Fed announcement. One of the main reasons for the post-referendum rally has been the promise of easing from the likes of the ECB, BoE and BoJ. With the OIS markets rating the chance of a BoE rate cut at 100% next week, it seems like a matter of time until we see some sort of action. However, given that we have seen the post-referendum rally stall after weeks of inaction in Europe, there is a feeling that the FTSE is waiting for some form of stimulus to spark another leg higher.

Eurozone economic confidence data today highlighted the divergence of UK and European sentiment since the referendum, with services confidence, business climate and economic sentiment all improving despite expectations of a severe deterioration. No doubt the UK is in a position which carries more questions than answers and this instability is likely to drive investment away from the UK and towards our European neighbours.

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