While risk remains, the worst appears to be behind us
|US Review
While Risk Remains, The Worst Appears to Be Behind Us
- The resurgence in COVID-19 in much of the Sun Belt appears to have topped out, although cases are rising faster in some smaller mid-Atlantic states and in parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.
- Real GDP declined in line with expectations, plunging at a record 32.9% annual rate.
- Jobless claims rose for a second consecutive week, and continuing claims also increased.
- Consumer confidence faltered as the second wave of COVID-19 infections triggered a pullback in economic engagement.
Global Review
Q2 GDP Data Shows Impact of COVID-19
- As expected, Mexico’s economy contracted significantly in the second quarter. The effects of COVID-19 and collapse in oil prices weighed heavily on the economy in Q2, while a lack of fiscal policy support from the current administration adds challenges to Mexico’s growth outlook going forward.
- GDP data were released across Europe as well, with the German economy recording a third straight quarterly contraction. Eurozone GDP performed roughly in line with expectations, recording a large decline in Q2. Despite the large contraction, we are optimistic on the Eurozone economy’s prospects for the second half of the year.
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