When Good News No Longer Matters
|Many times it's not the news that significant, but rather the stock market's reaction to the news.
If I was asked "How would the stock market future react to news that Trump was vindicated?" I would have guessed up, and perhaps hugely so.
Tonight, with the stock market futures down, it seems the market already factored in the fact that the Trump-Russia investigation was all bullsh*t.
It's not that investors or the market gets everything right as absurd euphoria in 2000, 2007, and 2018 shows. Rather we have another huge warning signal that good news no longer matters.
We already had a hint of that if one looks at the three-day reaction following the latest lovey-dovey Fed FOMC meeting.
It's early. The futures may reverse. I don't know what tomorrow brings, nor does anyone else.
I merely caution the possibly that we have gone from an environment in which all news is good news to an environment on which all news is bad news.
In the all news is good news environment, stocks go up on good news and bad news. The latter because the Fed won't hike or will start cutting, or it's all just transitory.
In the all news is bad news environment, there is worry over overvaluation, recessions, earnings, etc. Good news is never good enough.
We may not be in that environment yet, but I suspect we are. Regardless, we will get there if we're not, sooner rather than later.
Recession signals are flashing red, not yellow. Last Friday, I reported Near Full Inversion: 10-Year Note Inverts With 1-Month T-Bill
The inversion steepened tonight. Recession is at hand.
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