USD and more

07/14/2025 08:23:00 GMT|ByAhmed Alsajadi

Dollar Index (DXY)

Current Structure: Bullish MS with a clean 4H FVG mitigation in progress.
Liquidity: Buy-side above is intact and unswept.
Draw: Liquidity above July 1st swing high (Buy-side Liquidity labeled).
Note: Price may dip to refine the yellow FVG before continuation.

Bias: Bullish. Looking for continuation toward 98.20.

EUR/USD

Structure: Bearish with clean Equal Relative Lows (ERL) + FVG below.
Liquidity: ERLs resting at 1.16600–1.16700 zone → prime for sweep.
Daily OB: Still unmitigated around 1.15500
Scenario: FVG chain into deeper OB (Mentorship 2022 Scenario).

Bias: Bearish to 1.15500 zone. High conviction setup.

GBP/USD

Structure: Bullish rebound off Daily OB.
Liquidity: Sell-side swept below July 10th.
Reaction: Bullish structure forming off the Daily OB + large 4H range.
Target: Buy-side at 1.36200s.

Bias: Bullish. But prefer confirmation during NY session for entry.

AUD/USD

Structure: Bullish with recent displacement.
Liquidity: Still resting below unmitigated OB (around 0.65500).
FVG: Mitigation zone at 0.65700 (being tested).
Note: Minor ERL liquidity at the top. Deeper retrace possible.

Bias: Bullish with possible deeper pullback to 0.6550 OB.
Let it pull back before entering.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Structure: Bullish, recent shift confirmed.
Breaker (BRK): Clean zone around 3315–3340.
Liquidity: ERL above 3440 untouched.
Ideal Scenario: Pullback to yellow BRK → NY continuation.

Bias: Bullish with retracement entry from BRK. High probability trade.

US100 (NASDAQ CFD)

Structure: Bullish range developing.
Liquidity: Equal Highs forming around 22900.
Breaker: Clean rejection from 22400s BRK if price dips.
Comment: Could offer continuation if NY opens with pullback.

Bias: Bullish, but NYAM confirmation needed.

Top two setups for today

1. EUR/USD – Sell Into Daily OB

Entry: After sweep of current 4H FVG or retest of ERL.
Trigger: NYAM killzone ideal. Watch for BOS on 1H or 15m.
Target: 1.15500 (Daily OB zone).
Scenario: ERL sweep + FVG mitigation → continuation.

2. GOLD (XAU/USD) – NY Pullback Long

Entry: Pullback into yellow BRK zone (3315–3340).
Trigger: 15m confirmation or BOS during NYAM.
Target: 3440 ERL area.

Final tactical notes

DXY Bullish confirms USD strength bias → EUR/USD ideal for short.
GOLD offers high precision long with BRK support.
GBP/USD and NAS100 are valid, but second-tier today due to entry uncertainty.
AUD/USD: Don't buy highs. Let it return to OB.

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Analysis