Weekly economic & financial commentary
|Summary
United States: Lukewarm Jobs Report Keeps March Rate Cut in Play
- The December labor data continued to signal a gradual and orderly cooling in the jobs market. We still view that the FOMC will be on hold at its upcoming Jan. 28 meeting and that a couple more rate cuts this year look likely amid the continued moderation in hiring. The Supreme Court did not rule on IEEPA tariffs Friday, but a decision could come as early as next week.
- Next week: CPI (Tue.), New Home Sales (Tue.), Retail Sales (Wed.)
International: Cooling Prices Dominate Global Data
- Global inflation data this week largely signaled easing, with declines in the Eurozone, Sweden, Australia and Mexico. Switzerland, Norway and China saw modest, likely temporary increases. Meanwhile, Japan’s wage growth came in softer than expected.
- Next week: India CPI (Mon.), U.K. Monthly GDP (Thu.)
Topic of the Week: Implications of U.S. Intervention in Venezuela
- Events in Venezuela this past weekend are top of mind for market participants, especially those with exposure to Latin America and oil. While the situation is very much riddled with uncertainty, we do not envisage material or long-lasting financial market disruptions on the basis that markets may have been prepared for political turnover in Venezuela.
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