Weekly economic and financial commentary
|Summary
United States: Should They Stay or Should They Go?
- Delayed data started to trickle in this week, adding to the debate over the Fed's course of action at its December meeting. The September jobs report painted the picture of a cooling but not rapidly deteriorating jobs market. We believe the data are supportive of a December cut, but it's not a done deal.
- Next week: Consumer Confidence (Tue.), Retail Sales (Tue.), Durable Goods (Wed.)
International: Sluggish Yet Resilient
- Japan’s economy contracted in Q3 while prices accelerated in October. In contrast, inflation eased in the UK and Canada, reinforcing expectations for policy adjustments. Eurozone PMIs signaled mixed momentum—sluggish but positive growth—while UK PMIs disappointed, highlighting stalled activity.
- Next week: RBNZ Policy Rate (Wed.), Canada GDP (Fri.), India GDP (Fri.)
Topic of the Week: Tariffs on the Table
- As consumers gear up for the holiday season, they are contending with stubborn inflation. The trend decline in inflation stalled this year, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing 3.0% year-over-year in September—its highest reading since January. Though services prices have been gradually slowing, goods prices have experienced a pickup, and food categories have not been immune.
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