Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary
|Summary
United States: Growth Concerns Rattle Markets During Relatively Quiet Week for Economic Data
- Financial markets were jittery this week as uncertainty mounted around the new COVID variant hampering global activity and the growing idea that a lack of supply may prevent economic growth. We continue to believe that the drivers of economic recovery remain intact and project a robust above-consensus pace of growth into next year as supply problems ease.
- Next week: Consumer Price Index (Tuesday), Industrial Production (Thursday), Retail Sales (Friday)
International: U.K. Calms Down but Still Carries On
- U.K. May GDP figures pointed to an ongoing recovery, albeit at a slower pace, as the economy grew 0.8% month-over-month, with slower growth reported in both services and industrial activity. Meanwhile in Canada, after COVID restrictions crimped activity in recent months, June saw a rebound as employment jumped by 230,700.
- Next week: Bank of Canada policy announcement (Wednesday), China GDP (Thursday), Australian employment (Thursday)
Interest Rate Watch: June FOMC Minutes Raise as Many Questions as Answers
- Anyone looking for a higher degree of clarity on the path and timing for the Fed to remove its extraordinary policy accommodation was likely disappointed by this week's release of the June FOMC meeting minutes.
Credit Market Insights: What Happens When Forbearance Ends?
- Since the beginning of the year, an average of 1.3 million adults have reported being at risk of foreclosure; meanwhile, federal forbearance protections are set to expire at the end of September.
Topic of the Week: Oil Prices in the Spotlight Amid OPEC+ Impasse
- Talks last week among OPEC+ broke down as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) failed to come to terms on how new production quotas should be calculated.
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