Weekly economic and financial commentary
|Summary
United States: July Jobs Report Squashes Current Recession Fears
- Employers added over half a million jobs in July, which squashes arguments that the U.S. economy is currently in recession. While other measures of labor market strength have shown more pronounced signs of slowing, the July jobs report puts further pressure on the Fed to act aggressively in its fight against inflation.
- Next week: Productivity (Tues.), CPI (Wed.)
International: Global Central Banks Deliver Another Round of Rate Hikes
- The Bank of England stepped up the pace of its monetary tightening, raising its policy rate 50 bps to 1.75% this week, and also notified it would likely begin active sales of its government bond holdings shortly after its September announcement. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also hiked rates 50 bps but hinted at a more flexible approach moving forward. We expect the RBA to revert to 25 bps increments from September. Brazil's Central Bank raised its Selic Rate 50 bps this week, and we now expect one final 25 bps hike to 14.00% at its September monetary policy announcement.
- Next week: Brazil CPI (Tue.), Mexico Overnight Rate (Thu.), U.K. GDP (Fri.)
Credit Market Insights: Household Debt Surges in the Second Quarter
- Total household debt balances rose by $312B in the second quarter of this year, a 2% increase from last quarter. Debt has now surpassed $16T and has increased by over $2T since the start of 2020.
Topic of the Week: Tension in Taiwan
- Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan made one thing clear: U.S.-China tensions are not going anywhere anytime soon and international trade between the two countries continues to hang in the balance.
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