Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on Monday, day 30.   A swing low formed on Tuesday, setting up a possible daily cycle low.

Monday was day 30, placing the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low.  The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm a day 30 DCL.  However, if the dollar breaks below the day 30 low of 92.43, that will extend the daily cycle decline.
 

The failed daily cycle confirms that the weekly cycle is declining into its intermediate cycle low.  Losing both the 10 week MA and the 200 week MA provides additional confirmation of the intermediate cycle decline.  At 12 weeks, dollar can trend lower for another 6 to 12 weeks before printing its intermediate cycle low. Which is plenty of time for the dollar to print at least one more failed daily cycle.  The dollar is in a weekly downtrend & will remain so unless it closes above it the upper weekly cycle band.
 

The dollar printed its lowest point in September, month 16. A monthly swing low formed in October along with a break above the declining monthly trend line to confirm the new yearly cycle.  The dollar is teetering right on the 50 month MA.  A close below the 50 month MA will signal that the yearly cycle decline has begun. The dollar is in a monthly downtrend.  The dollar will remain in its monthly downtrend until it can close back above the upper monthly cycle band.
 

The dollar broke below the previous 3 year cycle low in September to form a failed 3 year cycle.  The remaining yearly cycles should now form as left translated yearly cycles until the next 3 year cycle low forms.  And with confirmation of a failed 3 year cycle, this sets up as a left translated 3 year cycle. That aligns with our 15 year super cycle analysis.
 

The dollar cycles through a 15 year super cycle. Each 15 year super cycle is embedded with five 3 year cycles. The dollar’s last 15 year super cycle peaked in 2001 on month 106, then declined into its third 3 year cycle low. The topping pattern in 2001 is vary similar to the current set up.  The confirmation of a failed 3 year cycle confirms that the dollar has begun its 15 year super cycle decline.  Once the dollar began its 15 year super cycle decline back in 2002 there was a rapid decline to the 50 month MA, as the dollar accomplished through September. The 50 month MA has provided support for the formation of a yearly cycle low. Once the new yearly cycle rolls over and the dollar loses the 50 month MA, that will confirm the bear market for the dollar.
May, 2016 hosted the 3 year cycle low, which was a shortened 3 year cycle of only 24 months. Since most times cycle balances themselves out, the dollar is positioned for the current 3 year cycle to be a stretched 3 year cycle to coincide with the start of the 15 year super cycle decline. And a stretched 3 year dollar cycle decline aligns with gold beginning a new multi year bull cycle. 

 

Stocks

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA after emerging from its daily cycle low.
 

Friday's volatility caused stocks to back test the 10 day MA. 



The large Buying on Weakness number indicates that Friday was a half cycle low.  A swing low here will allow us to construct the daily cycle trend line.  Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend.  They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
 

The new high on week 14 begins to shift the odds towards a right translated weekly cycle formation.  Stocks are in a weekly uptrend.  They will remain in their weekly uptrend unless they close below the lower weekly cycle band.
 

Stocks broke out to new high in November.  December is month 22, placing stocks deep in their timing band for seeking out their yearly cycle low. Since a yearly cycle low needs to occur at an intermediate cycle low, the earliest a yearly cycle low can form would be at the next intermediate cycle low. This means that the yearly cycle will extend by another 3 - 6 months.