USDJPY may have a small correction to ease overbought conditions
|EURUSD & USDCAD Spot
EURUSD over ran 1.2210/00 by 20 pips which was irritating. Outlook is negative with first resistance at 1.2235/40 & this could hold. Above 1.2250 would confuse a little & suggest we remain in a sideways trend (unfortunately). Minor resistance at 1.2270 then a selling opportunity at 1.2315/25.
A break below 1.2180 (sorry 10 pips too high yesterday) is an important longer term sell signal confirmation. Make sure you get short & hold the position in the days ahead targeting 1.2155/50, 1.2100/90 & support at 1.2040/30.
USDCAD topped at 1.2861. On further gains look for resistance at 1.2890/95. A break above 1.2910 targets the April high at 1.2915/20 & 500 day moving average resistance at 1.2970/80.
Minor support at 1.2810/05 then better support at 1.2780/70 could hold the downside. Stop below 1.2745.
USDJPY & EURJPY Spot
USDJPY may have a small correction to ease overbought conditions. We should be flat now so can buy on the dip. Below minor support at 108.60/55 meets support at 108.10/107.90. Try longs with stops below 107.70.
If we hold the 1 month trend line support at 108.60/55 it shows bulls are very determined but will need to clear the 100 day moving average at 108.95/99 & 109.19 of course to test very strong resistance at 109.45/55.
EURJPY tried a break above strong resistance at 133.00/10 with shorts stopped above 133.40 for the first time on this trade. (After it worked everyday for over a week). Obviously bulls must hold prices above 133.00/10 for a buy signal targeting 133.70/80 then minor resistance at 134.15/25.
Failure to hold above 133.00 risks a slide to a buying opportunity at 132.40/30, with stops below 132.00. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 131.75, 131.45 & 131.25.
AUDUSD & NZDUSD Spot
AUDUSD breaks 2 year trend line & 500 dma for an important longer term sell signal. Shorts target 7550, 7530 & 7485/80. We are not oversold but there is very minor 2 month trend line support at 7585/75 today. If a bounce is seen it is likely to be small with important resistance at 7635/45. Bulls need to hold the pair above 7660 be back in control. We would then target 7680, perhaps as far as resistance at 7720/30.
NZDUSD key to direction is now resistance at 7140/30. Holding below here targets 7110/06, 7075/70 & support at 7030. Take some profit but longs are too risky. Shorts at 7130/40 need stops above 7175.
GBPUSD & GBPJPY spot
GBPUSD bounce hits & holds the first target of 1.3977/85 but I suspect we target 5 month trend line resistance at 1.4030/40 today. Try shorts with stops above 1.4070.
A break below 1.3925/15 targets minor 100 day moving average support at 1.3860. This may hold initially in oversold conditions but longs will be risky. A break lower eventually targets 1.3824/20 & 1.3790/80 before the March low at 1.3720/10.
GBPJPY in a short term bull trend & holding above 151.80/85 re-targets 1.5220, 1.5235/40 & 152.55/60. Bulls then need a break above 152.80 for the next move towards 153.10 & 153.35/40.
Failure to hold above 151.70 risks a slide to short term trend line support at 151.15/10. A break below here however could target 150.55/45.
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