Analysis

US industrial production slightly disappointed in January

  • Most European equity markets eke out some gains, but US stock markets for the first time have difficulties to continue their record race on stronger than expected US eco data. Tightening fears taking over?

  • US consumer prices beat expectations and recorded their biggest increase in nearly four years in January, rising 0.6% m/m and 2.5% y/y. The so‐called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, rose 0.3% last month, lifting it to 2.3 % y/y in January.

  • US Retail sales notched up better than expected growth last month (0.4% vs 0.6% expected), marking the fifth consecutive month of higher consumer spending. December retail sales were upwardly revised from 0.6% m/m to 1% m/m. The US empire manufacturing unexpectedly improved to 18.7 in February, the highest level since Oct2014.

  • UK unemployment declined and a measure of the number of people in work rose to a record, pushing the labour market closer to "full capacity". Despite the increase in employment, and labour shortages in some areas, that's not being fully reflected in wages. Basic pay growth slowed to 2.6% from 2.7%, weaker than forecast.

  • US industrial production slightly disappointed in January, the only demerit to today's strong batch of US eco data. They declined by 0.3% m/m, from a downwardly revised 0.6% m/m in December. Manufacturing production rose in line with expectations, by 0.2% m/m.

  • Sweden's central bank held its benchmark interest rate at ‐0.50% and its QE programme unchanged, but indicated that it could loosen policy further if necessary. "The Executive Board is still prepared to make monetary policy more expansionary if the upward trend in inflation were to be threatened and confidence in the inflation target weakened".

  • US defence secretary James Mattis has said Nato is a "fundamental bedrock" for Washington, as he pushes to reassure allies about Donald Trump's commitment to the organisation.

  • The EU and Canada secured clearance for their contentious free trade deal and the removal of import duties that supporters say will boost growth and jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.

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