United States: The Powell put
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Fed chairman Powell has recently emphasized that the FOMC will be patient given the muted inflation reading and that it is ready to shift the policy stance swiftly if required
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He also considers that financial markets are pricing in downside risks well ahead of the data. This means that they are too pessimistic on growth
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Professional forecasters' estimates of the probability of entering into recession in the coming quarters do not display the typical pre-recession dynamics either
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