Turkish Lire Strength to be Temporary?
|Our view on both EURTRY and USDTRY has been consistently positive since last July’s bullish triggers in spot and RSI. USDTRY rose more than 30% to last month’s high and EURTRY 25%. These gains have been supported by the 13 and 21 week mvg avgs and, for the most part, have tracked the upper band of positively trending weekly Keltner channels. Setbacks have been temporary and limited.
While there is no change to our view that the TRY will remain negative there are some warning signs that encourage added caution.
Last week saw strong profit taking setbacks in the 2 TRY currency pairs. These were not deep enough to test the moving averages in spot prices but have given negative crossovers in the RSI indicators. In addition the falls were the most aggressive since 2008.
Given the distance to the moving averages there is some way before any bear trend would be signalled but the key will be the Marabuzo lines created by last week's declines (3.7820 & 4.0680 respectively). Bulls will be eager to see the market break back above those points to confirm a renewal of investor buying whereas a failure to breach, on a closing basis, will dilute further the current underlying tone.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.