Trump is taking over – buckle up
|Market movers ahead
- The key event in the US in the coming week is the inauguration of Donald Trump as the next US president. We should soon see a plan for the first 100 days and more clarification on his exact policies.
- Other key events in the US include CPI inflation, business surveys from Philadelphia and New York (Empire) and a string of Fed speeches, not least by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen.
- At the ECB meeting on Thursday, we do not expect any big changes in rhetoric despite stronger data and higher inflation recently.
- China’s GDP for Q4 is likely to show another quarter of 6.7% growth y/y – the same as in the previous three quarters.
Global macro and market themes
- Economic surprise indices are very high. This does not normally last for long. It is a short-term risk for yields.
- A strong clash between Trump and China is an increasing risk.
- EUR/USD is moving in tandem with the US-German rate differential.
- The oil rally is over for now.
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