Triple Resistance and GDP catalyst for EURUSD

Chart of the day:

US 10 Year T-Note Yield  (daily chart)

The Yield of the 10 year US T-Note after it left the bullish channel and slid to its 200 day MA it rebounded and next resistance could be area 2.47 while a breakout could lift the rate to test area 2.63. Below 2.30-2.28 selling pressure could bring the yield to test area 2.20.

 

Tuesday November 14, 2017  CET Time			Forecast	Previous
08:00	EUR	Germany’s GDP wda – Preliminary (Q3; YoY)	2.3%	2.1%
08:00	EUR	Germany’s Harmonised CPI – Final (Oct; YoY)	1.5%	1.5%
09:05	USD	Fed’s Evans speaks in Frankfurt
10:00	EUR	ECB’s Lautenschläger and Nouy speak in Frankfurt
10:30	GBP	CPI (Oct; YoY)	3.1%	3.0%
10:30	GBP	PPI Output nsa (Oct; YoY)	2.9%	3.3%
11:00		Draghi, Yellen, Carney and Kuroda speak in Frankfurt
11:00	EUR	GDP sa – Preliminary (Q3; YoY)	2.5%	2.5%
11:00	EUR	ZEW Germany Expectation of Economic Growth (Nov)	19.5	17.6
14:30	USD	PPI Final Demand sa (Oct; MoM)	0.1%	0.4%

The day kicks off with Germany’s GDP and CPI data at 8:00 CET. Increased volatility is expected for euro pairs when the GDP flash figure is released, forecasted at a 2.3% increase year-over-year. This will provide an initial guidance on eurozone’s growth in the third quarter as its GDP figure is released at 11:00 CET. Another key release is UK’s inflation at 10:30 CET. 3.1% is expected for the headline figure, which would bring inflation one percentage point above the central bank’s target. The US PPI Final Demand figure, forecasted to gain 0.1% month-over-month, will finish this heavy data day at 14:30 CET.
Several central bankers are speaking throughout the day. An ECB conference titled “Communication challenges for policy effectiveness, accountability and reputation” takes place in Frankfurt. Evans from the Fed will speak at 9:05 CET but the focus should be on Draghi, Yellen, Carney and Kuroda at 11:00 CET as they discuss challenges and opportunities of central bank communication. More speeches in Frankfurt today as ECB’s Lautenschläger and Nouy participate in the 20^th Euro Finance Week at 10:00 CET.

Technical Analysis

FTSEMIB  (Daily timeframe)

FTSEMIB closed below the lower boundary of an upward channel for the first time. The Channel is in formation since the start of 2016 and the price never closed below. The next key support is at 22000, with a break of this level potentially accelerating its decline. While a false movement lower and break back into the channel could see a test of the highs from last week at 23133.

EUROSTOXX50  (Daily timeframe)

EURO STOXX 50 closed lower but managed a close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August low to November high move. A break below yesterday’s low could see the index test key support at 3502/ 3500, 61.8% Fibonacci level, and also a key horizontal support level. If the bounce off yesterday’s low gains momentum higher, a close above 3600 could see the price test the highs at 3708 in the near-term.

XAUUSD (Daily timeframe)

The shiny metal reduced its volatility after the breakout of its supply line. Above 1,300 it could test 1,357, its 2017 top and then it could test the higher side of the channel. Below 1,260 it may test 1,200 and then 1,168.

EURUSD  (Daily timeframe)

The rate is trading very close to a triple resistance: the 21MA, the supply line that links lower highs and then the static resistance. A breakout could lift EURUSD to test 1.20 and then to 1.2092.  Below 1.561 the pair could test 1.1430 and then its 200MA, near 1.13.

Facebook Inc. (Daily timeframe)

The shares of the most famous social network (and the most profitable as well) are making lower highs after they reached a record high near 182.99. A breakout of the dynamic resistance could lift  FB to test 200. Beneath 175 the stock could drop to 160 but below 170 selling pressure could increase.