Tory Majority of 48 Based On Latest ComRes Data
|The latest ComRes polling data suggests a Tory majority of 48 in the UK election a week from now.
Voting Intention Little Changed
Dec 2-3 ComRes Poll Raw Numbers
My lead chart was produced by plugging the latest ComRes Poll results into the Electoral Calculus Regional Predictor
Those numbers are from Table 23 in the ComRes poll.
Seat-by-Seat Change Projections
Those are neither ComRes predictions nor Electoral Calculus prediction.
Rather, they are the results I obtain putting ComRes numbers into the Electoral Calculus model.
I use ComRes because it provides regional breakouts.
Majority Still 48
There was no lead change from the prior ComRes numbers but some individual seats dis switch.
To compare, please see Three UK Election Projections, Raw Numbers and Seat by Seat.
No Change, No Surprise
Yesterday I commented Expect No Further Labour Gains: What You See is What You Get
It's not just ComRes, all the polls have stabilized.
Actual Ballot Papers
ComRes used actual constituency ballot papers for this poll.
That may aid seat-by-seat projections even if the overall numbers did not change.
YouGov
I will post YouGov results as they come in and as time permits.
Labour's Only Hope
Repeating my comment from yesterday: The only hope for Labour is that every poll is seriously wrong and all of them in the same direction.
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