Analysis

Today's Market Themes: Lower Chinese forecasts weigh on mood, services data awaits

What you need to know today:

  • Chinese Premier Li Keipand announced a growth target of 6-6.5%, another downgrade after the 6.6% level in 2018, the lowest in 28 years. The news weighs on the market mood.
  • Optimism prevails on reaching a trade deal between the US and China, but this is mostly priced in.
  • Brexit negotiations continue in Brussels with UK Brexit Secretary Barclay and Attorney General Cox meeting Chief EU Negotiator Barnier. 
  • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify about Brexit, inflation, and the economy. 
  • Services PMI data is due all over the world with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI standing out. A minor bounce is projected in the forward-looking gauge for the largest sector, which also serves as a hint toward the Non-Farm Payrolls. Services PMI preview
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged but made a dovish shift, weighing on the Aussie.

Euro-zone:

  • French President Emmanuel Macro called for a "renaissance" for the 19-country bloc as it limps from crisis to crisis.
  • Euro-zone services PMI data are projected to show that Italy and France suffer from a contraction in these sectors, while Germany and Spain are doing well.
  • The Sentix Investor Confidence beat expectations but remained in negative territory at -2.2 points.

UK:

  • The Services PMI is forecast to show stagnation in the UK's largest sector amid Brexit uncertainty.
  • The Construction PMI slipped to 9.5 points, indicating contraction.
  • The eurosceptic European Research Group faction in the Conservative Party has hired a group of top lawyers to examine any changes to the Brexit deal.

 US:

  • Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will speak later in the day.
  • House Democrats have launched a broad investigation in President Trump's dealings, asking for documents from 81 people, including the President's sons.
  • Construction Spending disappointed with a drop of 0.6% in December. This is expected to push GDP estimates lower.

China:

  • The Caixin Services PMI disappointed with 51.5 points.

Australia

  • RBA Governor Lowe will speak about the housing market at the wake of the Asian session.
  • Australian GDP is set to bounce but remain below the Q1 and Q2 levels.

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