The Euro area growth is sharply decelerating
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In the US, activity has been buoyant so far, largely thanks to tax cuts
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For the foreseeable period, a landing is more than a possibility
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Interest rates hikes and tariffs increases on worth $300bn of imports will start to weigh on firms profitability, then activity
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The downward adjustment could be sizeable in highly leveraged sectors such as energy and IT
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As a consequence, the monetary tightening would mark a pause
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Long term-bond yields would also stabilize, below the 3pct level.
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The Euro area, growth is sharply decelerating, with some countries like Italy now in recession
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Extra and intra EU trade is less dynamic, in line with fading external demand, in particular coming from EMEs
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Inflation is expected to come-back below the 2pct level, as a consequence of falling oil prices
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The ECB will stop its net asset purchases as off the 1st January of 2019, while keeping rates unchanged up to the end of year
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This may cause a (slight) rebound in bond yields as well as in the value of euro.
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