The Dominant alternating cycle
|I first mentioned the 47 TD alternating cycle back on September 9 2016, when it was looking for an early September High. The 41-42 week cycle mentioned in that same post, also topped out at the same time and has an average 107 SP decline.
The dominant 47 TD (Trading Days) alternating High and Low cycle has been in the markets since late September 2015 and suggests a 11/08/16 Election Low, with a minimum 2093 SPX channel Target.
1. 09/29/15L - 12/02/15H, Low to High.
2. 12/02/15H - 02/11/16L, High to Low.
3. 02/11/16L - 04/20/16H, Low to High.
4. 04/20/16H - 06/27/16L, High to Low.
5. 06/27/16L – 09/07/16H, Low to High.
6. 09/07/16H – 11/08/16L, High to Low is next!
Also notice 34 TD, after the 47 TD Cycle High or Low is also a CIT (High or Low):
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09/29/15L – 11/16/15L = 34 TD
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12/02/15H – 01/20/16L = 32 TD
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02/11/16H – 04/01/16H = 34 TD
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04/20/16H – 06/08/16H = 34 TD
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06/27/16L – 08/15/16H = 34 TD
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09/01/16L – 10/19/16H = 33 TD
The Dow Jones down channel support touches the 61.8% retrace by 11/8. If we do the same 61.8% in the SPX we will target 2069 SPX at the 200 DMA.
Conclusion: The 34 TD CIT of the 47 TD Cycle arrived 1 day earlier at the 10/19H at 2148.44 SPX, which was a double Top with the 10/14 Apex CIT High at 2149.19 SPX. From the 10/19H, the 47 TD Cycle suggests we see a choppy decline into 11/8 election Low, targeting 2093 SPX or 2069 SPX and a strong rally afterwards.
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