Technical analysis – GBP/JPY freezes at 50.0% Fibonacci; momentum ceases
|GBPJPY has come to a standstill at 134.47, that being the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 144.94 to 124.00. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) sponsors a broader neutral picture with its mostly horizontal tone while the recent bullish crossover of the 100-day SMA by the ascending 50-day one, may provide the necessary boost to return upside sentiment.
Although directional momentum has disappeared, the short-term oscillators look skewed to the upside. The MACD is marginally above its red trigger line and neutral mark, while the RSI hovers slightly above the 50 threshold. Turning to the stochastic oscillator, the positive overlap of the %D line by the rising blue %K line proposes forthcoming advances.
If buying interest steps up, initial resistance may emanate from the area between the nearby highs of 135.91 and 136.33. Overrunning this section, the 61.8% Fibo of 136.93 and the 200-day SMA at 137.44 above, may attempt to apply the brakes on the hike. Surpassing the 200-day SMA, the pair may shoot for the 139.72 peak achieved on June 5 ahead of a key resistance at 140.82.
Should sellers slip underneath the 50.0% Fibo of 134.47, early support may occur at the 50- and 100-day SMAs at 133.78 and 133.26 respectively. Dipping further, the 131.75 low may come under pressure. Steeper declines may then test the 130.66 and 129.28 troughs in May before diving to challenge the 127.32 vital support.
Summarizing, GBPJPY displays a neutral bias in the short-term timeframe and an initial violation either above 136.33 or below 131.75 may restart a direction.
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