Squeeze and NFPs positioning ahead
|S&P 500 duly tank on poor ADP employment change and GDP data, high beta was hit hardest and sectoral view risk-off till the close – yet bid started returning, rendering the daily view as neutral… all the way till the power hour, which is when MSFT and META earnings positioning came to the fore. There was no tariff or other explanation for that – pure positioning as bid overwhelmed the markets within essentially 45 minutes. The prior rejection to go higher (happening on high volume on 15min chart), was invalidated too – I‘m diving into all the technical and data aspects incl. breadth, yields and USD in today‘s extensive video.
Yields on the long end didn‘t retreat as much as they did in shortest durations, which speaks volume about continued market expectations (demands) of a rate cut. DAX similarly dealt with its weakness, including in the premarket session today (not flashing any warnings) – considering the employment change undershoot, tomorrow‘s NFPs will be very interesting (rosy expectations?) Chicago PMI also came in below 45, strongly contractionary reading – that‘s truly worse than stagflationary data (as per yesterday‘s title), and gold through its decline called, is onto something…Remember ISM PMI ahead today!
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