SP 2500 before 2300? 2450 Before 2350?
|WHAT WILL THE FED DO?
Is it buy the rumor, sell the news? Or buy if they raise, because things are good? Either way, smart bulls are nervous. However given the positive astro of H2 March, I would be more inclined to bet long than short as a trader; while as an investor, we continue to recommend 1) stock picking over indexing and 2) Increasing hedging the higher market go
1. FUNDAMENTALLY we continue to see MARKETS OVERPRICED by 10%-12%, but given future increasing profits for many companies, and lower taxes and less regulation, IT SHOULD BECOME LESS OVERVALUED AS TIME PASSES.
2. TECHNICALLY, watch resistance at SP 2400, DJ 21K & NASDAQ 6000.
Downside potential is DJ 20000 or 19762 [12/31 market close].
BOTTOM LINE: Initially we expected H2 March up, but as long as markets stay above SP 2320, technically one is required to maintain a long basis.
Nonetheless, we always advise caution, and believe stock picking will easily well outperform index investing in 2017.
Additionally, short term trading and conservative hedging strategies (such as writing covered calls and 2-1 long/short ratios) are recommended for Spring.
Price wise, ~ SP 2400 1-1, and if markets are so inclined to move still higher up towards 2500, then 1-2.
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MARKERS DJIA SPX NASDAQ SILVER GOLD OIL
|
2016 CLOSE |
19762 |
2238 |
5383 |
15.96 |
1152 |
53.89 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3/10/2017 |
20902 |
2372 |
5861 |
17.05 |
1204 |
48.39 |
|
PIVOTS |
20800 |
2355 |
5789 |
17 |
1200 |
48 |
|
RESISTANCE |
21061 |
2400 |
6250+? |
20 |
1300 |
52 |
KEY DATES: March 15
DJIA: 20800 PIVOT S1 20500 S2 20000 S3 19762
SPX: 2355 PIVOT
NASDAQ: 5666 SUPPORT R1 6000 R2 6250 R3 6500
GOLD: 1200 PIVOT R1 1210 R2 1225 R3 1240
SILVER: 17 PIVOT
OIL: 44 OR 48 SUPPORT? ITà$57+
US 10 year Distribute/Sell à 2.75-3.00 [RESISTANCE]
BP: ACCUMULATE 1.20-122 PIVOT IT à 1.30+
The Market Marker includes some cautious concern.
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
2015 CLOSE: DJIA 17425 SPX 2044 & NASDAQ 5007
2014 CLOSE: DJIA 17823 SPX 2058 & NASDAQ 4736
2013 CLOSE: DJIA 16576 SPX 1848 & NASDAQ 4178
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1370
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK
3. 2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS:
4. At the Red Cloud Pre-PDAC Mining Showcase, we listened to three interesting stories: Aurania Resource (TSXV: ARU), Gold Quest (TSXV: GQC) & Richmont Mines (RIC).
Two favorites also presented: Metalla Royalty & Streaming (CSE:MTA) & Victoria Gold (TSXV: VIT).
The mood at the PDAC mining show in Toronto was decidedly upbeat. I am still catching up and will say more about this next week.
3. $16 or $18 Silver next? As both a trader and investor, I wish to be long.
For Gold, the question is whether $1200 gold support holds so that it can rally IN SPITE of markets FEDish fears to retest $1300.
How much longer must we wait for gold to move significantly closer to Fair Value ($1370)?
Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
Moreover for investors suffering from minuscule interest rates, accumulating gold continues to be a no-brainer!
Likewise for investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Gold FV $1370 = Commodity FV: 1325 + Currency FV: 1400 + Inflation Metal FV:1355 + Crisis FV: 1400.
Gold/Silver ratio à 62 FV $22.
INVESTORS: Intermediate Term, we plan to stay LONG in H1 2017 (recommending steady accumulation and only occasional hedging, selling or profit taking). We remain disinclined to short or sell until gold is overvalued e.g. $1400+.
For silver our first selling numbers are $23+.
4. “Eight years into this thing, I cannot credibly even argue that a topping process has begun.”
Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer, Leuthold Group
HW: It will most definitely happen by 2019, if not before!
“Very simply, the market starts to go down. As it goes down, it will start triggering selling, and then it will be like an avalanche.
Marc Faber, editor, The Gloom, Boom & Doom report
HW: Maybe, maybe not.
“The U.S. dollar rally is not over yet.”
Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G-10 currency strategy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
HW: That is the opinion of many/most currency analysts.
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It’s time to start preparing your portfolio for a potential market correction
5. READER: BOA Merrill Lynch says gold to jump $200 this year.
HW: 1400 is hardly a “jump” as would $1500 be. None-the-less, a test of 1400 certainly doable in 2017.
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