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Analysis

Small business confidence edges lower in June

Summary

Sentiment mostly steady, though headwinds mounting

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.6 in June from 98.8 the month prior. The small decline in business sentiment reflects ongoing concerns about the economic ramifications of shifting trade and immigration policies. On net, more firms raised selling prices, reduced capital spending, reported difficulties filling open positions and lowered expectations for economic growth.

Small business optimism fell modestly in June

The trend in small business confidence has moved lower this year after surging following the election. June's headline reading is still well above the average registered between 2022 and 2024, but businesses are concerned about the economic ramifications of shifting trade and immigration policies. It is too soon to see the effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill recently passed into law.

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