Analysis

Retail Sales Go Rogue

U.S. Review

Retail Sales Go Rogue

  • Energy prices weighed on both headline CPI and PPI. The January CPI was unchanged, while PPI fell 0.1%. Core measures were more firm, rising 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
  • Retail sales unexpectedly plunged 1.2% during December. Control group sales, which factor into GDP, also sharply declined 1.7%.
  • Industrial production fell 0.6% in January, with the weakness being traced to the manufacturing sector.
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.2 points in January amid uncertainty from the government shutdown.

Global Review

More Subdued Data from the Global Economy

  • U.K. GDP growth slowed more than expected toward the end of last year as business investment declined for the fourth-straight quarter, likely at least partly a symptom of Brexit uncertainty. Still, consumer activity has held up against a backdrop of stronger real wage growth.
  • Eurozone industrial output figures pointed to a further slowing in activity in the currency bloc, while we also learned that Germany’s economy stagnated in Q4. Japanese GDP data showed a rebound in Q4 after a string of natural disasters in the prior quarter, although that rebound was not quite as strong as expected.

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