Oil bounces on trade hopes, but OPEC drama keeps the lid tight
|Oil’s staging a modest rebound this morning as the tape grabs onto signs of a potential U.S.-China tariff thaw. WTI is back near $62.86, up close to 1%, while Brent is holding above $66.50 — nothing dramatic, but enough to unwind some of Wednesday’s trade war tariff-induced flush.
The driver? Washington floated the idea that China tariffs could “come down substantially,” while Beijing called for a complete rollback, even as both sides admit formal talks haven’t kicked off. Still, the tone is shifting just enough to keep the bears from pressing.
Let’s be clear — crude’s still nursing a $10 drawdown since the early-April tariff blitz, and recession warnings are now baked into most macro models. But for today, the gloom is taking a breather.
Adding support: a chunky U.S. product draw in the latest EIA report, offering bulls a tangible reason to step back in. The data showed real inventory tightness despite soft global demand expectations — a short-term tailwind for prices.
But the upside is capped by cartel noise. Kazakhstan just shrugged off OPEC+ quotas, bluntly stating its production will follow national interests. That kind of dissent undercuts any confidence in coordinated supply management — and keeps a lid on price enthusiasm.
Bottom line: oil’s bouncing, but it’s still trapped in a tug-of-war between trade optimism and cartel dysfunction. Until one side breaks decisively, this is still a fade-the-rally, buy-the-dip kind of tape.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.