Analysis

Morning wrapup

Key messages

  • GBP will be affected by the UK labor market report with wage growth in the center of attention.
  • Speeches from New York Fed President William Dudley and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are strongly Fed and US Dollar related.

 

Wednesday’ s market moving events

  • ECB’s president Mario Draghi is due to deliver opening remarks at the ECB conference, in Frankfurt at 8:10 GMT

  • The UK labor market report is due at 8:30 GMT with unemployment seen flat at 4.3% and wage growth rising 2.1%.

  • New York Fed President William Dudley and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan to speak on New York & Texas as Centers of Growth breakfast conversation at Hearst, in New York at 12:00 GMT.

  • The International Energy Administration releases oil market report at 14:30 GMT.

 

Tuesday’ s forex movers

  • Sterling was a market mover of Tuesday falling more than 0.7% on a day after Mark Carney sounded very dovish in terms of tah rate outlook at the TSC hearing.

  • Euro keeps continuously sliding lower vs US Dollar but managed to recover late on Tuesday.

  • EUR and GBP are of major market focus on Wednesday with Draghi speaking and the UK labor market report highlighting the day.

 

Tuesday’s macro summary

  • UK CPI rose 3.0% y/y in September, the highest since 2012 due to rising prices for food and recreational goods, along with transport costs, which fell by less than they did a year ago.

  • German ZEW index of investors’ sentiment rose 0.6 points to 17.6 in October, failing to meet market expectations.

  • Eurozone final CPI rose 1.5% y/y in September, still far away from ECB’s 2% inflation target.

  • The Bank of England Governor Carney expressed less willingness to hike the Bank rate this November at the parliamentary hearing saying “the rate hike might be appropriate”.

  • US import prices rose 0.7% m/m in September beating the market forecast of 0.5% m/m increase.

  • US industrial production rose 0.3% m/m in September after hurricane damaged August fell -0.9% m/m.

  • Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker spoke about regional and community development not about the monetary policy.

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