Morning briefing: The US treasury yields are struggling to rise
|The U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The Dollar Index has recovered from the low of 97.86 but faces resistance near 98.50–98.75, which could cap the upside. EURUSD needs a decisive break above 1.18 to extend the rally; otherwise, a pullback toward 1.170–1.165 looks likely while resistance holds. EURINR must sustain above 107 to target 108 in the near term. EURJPY has slipped below 182, and if the decline continues, a test of 180 may follow. USDJPY is trading lower within its 158–154 range. USDCNY can extend the fall toward 7.025 or even 7.00 while below 7.045. AUDUSD remains range-bound between 0.67 and 0.66. GBPUSD needs a sustained move above 1.34 to open up 1.35–1.36. USDINR may test 91.25 in the near term, after which price action around this resistance will be crucial to watch.
The US Treasury yields are struggling to rise. That keeps alive the danger of the yields falling back again. Unless the yields rise past their immediate resistance, the above-mentioned fall cannot be avoided. The unemployment rate in the US surged to 4.6%. The German yields remain higher and stable. The bias remains bullish to see more rise from here. The 10Yr GoI continues to hover around its resistance. Immediate picture looks unclear. The yield has to break its resistance decisively in order to go higher.
The Dow is likely to rise towards 49000 while above 48000. The DAX is holding above 24000 and could soon rise towards 24200-24500. Nifty has dipped again yesterday and could fluctuate within the broad 25600/800-26200/500 region unless a breakout is seen on either side. Nikkei needs to hold above 49000 else can drag itself down to 48000-47000. Shanghai continues trade within the 3800-3950 region.
Brent and WTI have broken key supports near $60 and $56, remaining under pressure with further downside likely towards $57-$55 and $52-$50 respectively. Gold is trying to break above $4400, and a sustained move can push it towards $4450-$4500. Silver has strengthened above $65 and can rise towards $67-$68. Copper stays weak below $5.60 with scope to fall towards $5.00. Natural Gas remains bearish with downside seen towards $3.80-$3.70.
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