Morning briefing: EUR/USD has dipped below 1.1700
|The Dollar Index is trading higher within its 97.75-98.75 range. EURUSD has dipped below 1.17 and failing to rise back can extend the fall to 1.16. EURINR is trading within 106.25-105 region. EURJPY & USDJPY can remain range bound between 183-185 & 154-158 region for some time. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95 or even further in the near term. Aussie is testing support near 0.6675. Need to see whether it holds or not. While Pound is moving within 1.34-1.35 region. The target of 1.36 is kept alive while it trades above 1.34. USDINR had moved above 90 on Friday and while the rise sustains, a test to 90.50 and higher can happen in the coming sessions. IN Services PMI & US Manufacturing ISM are scheduled to release today.
The US Treasury yields are moving up in line with our expectation. The 30Yr indicates that more rise is possible from here. That can aid the 10Yr to break its immediate resistance and move higher. The German Yields have risen sharply and are poised at their resistance now. A strong follow-through rise from here can take them higher. We will have to wait and watch. The 10Yr GoI sustains higher but stable. Bias is positive to see more rise in the coming days.
The Dow is expected to rise towards 49000-49500 while the Dax is slowly inching towards resistance near 25000 which if holds can lead to a fall towards 24000. Nifty has risen well last week but has immediate resistance near 26500 which has to decisively break for further bullishness to set it. Else a range of 26500-25800/600 can continue to hold for some more time. Nikkei and Shanghai trade higher and are headed towards 52000 and 4000-4100 soon.
Brent and WTI are trading below resistance and may remain range-bound at 62–58 and 59–55. Gold has bounced from support and can rise towards 4500–4600. Silver has moved back above 75 with scope for 76–78 in the near term. Copper has rebounded and may advance towards 6.0–6.2. Natural gas is holding near 3.4, above which a bounce towards 3.6–3.8 is possible, though a break lower can drag it towards 3.2–3.0.
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