Morning briefing: EUR/USD can be vulnerable to extend the fall towards 1.1550-1.1500
|The Dollar Index rebounded from 99 itself. A confirmed rise past 99.50 will be needed to bring 100.50 and higher levels into picture. EURUSD can be vulnerable to extend the fall towards 1.1550-1.500 if it slips below 1.16. EURINR has risen as anticipated and further rise to 104.50-105.00 can be seen in coming sessions. EURJPY is trading within its 180-182 range. USDJPY has bounced well from the low of 154.66 and a sustained move above 156 if seen can take it towards 158 and higher. USDCNY can fall towards 7.065-7.060 in the near term. The Aussie turned lower from 0.6566 itself. If the fall continues, then 0.650-0.645 might get tested. Pound is stuck within 1.32-1.33 region. USDINR has been rising in line with our view and while above 89.50, our view remains intact to see a rise towards 90.00-90.25 in the coming weeks.
The US Treasury yields have risen well above their resistance. While this sustains, the yields can rise more from here and the expected fall will get negated. The German Yields have risen sharply after hovering around their support for some time. This clears the way to see more rise in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI is heading up towards the upper end of the range. Need to wait and see if it is getting a bullish breakout this time or not.
The Dow and Dax have dipped and could test 47000 and 23000 before rebounding to higher levels. Nifty has also closed below 26200 yesterday and could test 26000 before again moving up towards 26400. Nikkei has received slightly after a sharp fall yesterday. A sustained break above 50000 can take it back to 52000 and higher. Shanghai can continue to trade within the 4000-3800 range.
Brent and WTI are holding firm and could rise to $64 and $60.50 soon, after which the market will decide whether the trend extends or reverses lower. Gold is staying strong above $4200 and is on course toward $4400. Silver keeps its bullish momentum after hitting a record $59.44 and can stretch toward $60–$61 if buyers stay active. Copper has broken above $5.2 and now has room to advance toward $5.5–$5.6. Natural gas is above $5.20 and looks likely to climb up towards $5.5–$6.0 before any pullback.
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