Modestly Positive Data on the Domestic Front
|U.S. Review
Modestly Positive Data on the Domestic Front
- This past week several key economic indicators hit the wire, taking a pulse for several important sectors. While the headline figures did not jump off the pages, the details are more encouraging.
- Retail sales rebounded in April, with notable strength in control group sales, the component that feeds into GDP. Industrial production reached a series high, with contributions from all industry groups. Housing starts contracted on the month, however builder optimism remains relatively high.
- Continued strength in the domestic data flows adds further support for three more rate hikes in 2018.
Global Review
Signs of Slower Economic Growth in Most Economies
- Real GDP in Japan contracted at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent in Q1 relative to the previous quarter. In our view, however, Japanese real GDP growth will return to positive territory in coming quarters.
- China maintained a steady real GDP growth rate in the first quarter, but recent monthly data suggest that growth may be slowing a bit in the current quarter.
- The year-over-year rate of real GDP growth in Russia edged up to 1.3 percent in Q1, which is hardly overwhelming. We expect that Russian GDP will continue to grind higher, but at rates significantly slower than a decade ago.
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