Analysis

Market themes of the Day: Mix of Eurozone growth, inflation, and unemployment is due

What you need to know before markets open
Main themes:

  • Australian inflation remained weak in September quarter decelerating to 1.9% y/y from 2.1% y/y in June. Decelerating inflation is set to keep the RBA on hold for long.
  • China’s factory growth weakened to the lowest level in last two years with the slump in export orders deepening. 
  • The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged in line with market expectations while lowering the growth and inflation outlook for Japan.
  • The Eurozone third quarter GDP missed the expectations while Italian GDP stagnated. For details read my Analysis here
  • SNB Governing Board Chairman Thomas Jordan set to deliver a speech titled "Protectionism makes monetary policy difficult" at the Bern Economic Society at 18:15 GMT. 

Japan

  • The Bank of Japan held the monetary policy unchanged, keeping its pledge of flexible buying of the government bonds with the annual cap of around ¥80 trillion. 
  • The Bank of Japan lowered slightly the growth and inflation forecast for this fiscal year while lowering the inflation forecast for the next fiscal year as well.

Europe

  • Italian third quarter of 2018 GDP was unchanged with respect to the previous quarter and increased by 0.8% over the same quarter of the previous year. Italy/Germany 10-year bond yield spread widened to 301 basis points after Italy GDP data, rising some  5 basis points on the day.
  • German unemployment fell by 12K to 5.1% in October.
  • The Eurozone third-quarter GDP rose by a disappointing 0.2% over the quarter while rising 1.7% over the year in Q3. 
  • Headline inflation in Germany climbed to a ten-year-high of 2.5% y/y in October but underlying inflationary pressure remains subdued. 
  • German retail sales are seen rising 0.5% m/m and 1.0% y/y in September.
  • The mix of Spanish GDP, French CPI, and Italian unemployment is scheduled for the morning session. 
  • The Eurozone unemployment is expected to remain steady at 8.1% in September.
  • The Eurozone inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.2% y/y in October.

US

Canada

  • The Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins are scheduled to testify for the second day before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa at 20:30 GMT. 
  • Canada’s August GDP is expected to rise 0.2% m/m.
     

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