Analysis

Market themes of the Day: Brexit debate begins in the UK parliament before BoC keeps rates on hold

What you need to know before markets open
Main themes:

  • Australian GDP rose 0.3% Q/Q, missing the market consensus by a large margin as an investment and non-residential construction fell lower. 
  • China’s services PMI jumped up strongly to 53.8 in November, up from 50.85 in the previous month.
  • The day of the UK parliament starting the Brexit deal debate. The UK Government was defeated in parliament on Tuesday with lawmakers voting to give parliament more power over next Brexit steps if May's Brexit deal is voted down on December 11. 
  • The Bank of Canada is expected to keep the target rate unchanged in December with three more rate hikes in 2019. For more details read my Preview here

Europe

  • The Eurozone producer prices rose 0.8% over the month while increasing 4.9% y/y in October, rising above market expectations.
  • The ECB President Mario Draghi opens the banking supervision conference in Frankfurt at 8:30 GMT.
  • German services PMI is expected to reach 52.2 in November with the composite PMI at 53.3 for the same month.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI is expected to reach 52.4 in November.
  • The Eurozone retail sales are expected to rise 2.1% over the year in October.

UK 

  • The European Court of Justice declared that according to Article 50 of the Treaty of European Union allows the unilateral revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU. That means that the UK could revoke Brexit if the Brexit agreement did not pass the UK parliament on December 11. 
  • The Bank of England chief Governor Mark Carney repeated his remarks on no-deal Brexit unlikely scenario confirming the view that disorderly Brexit would launch a severe recession.
  • UK construction PMI rose to 53.4 in November.
  • The Brexit debate begins in the UK parliament.
  • The UK services PMI is expected to rise to 52.5 in November.

US

  • The US ISM in manufacturing is expected to increase slightly to 57.8 in November with the index of prices paid decelerating to 68.3.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said the US economy overall is “in really good shape” with Fed evaluating incoming data as it decides on a policy path expecting further gradual increases in rates. 
  • The US Beige book of the regional economic activity is due to confirm the solid shape of the US economy.

Canada
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep the target rate unchanged in December with three more rate hikes in 2019. For more details read my Preview here

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