Looking for solid indicators to kick off 2017
|Market movers ahead
- We get the first indications on 2017 activity in the US with the release of the preliminary Markit PMIs for January. We also get the first estimate of Q4 16 GDP growth. We estimate Q4 GDP growth was 2.3% q/q AR mainly driven by private consumption.
- In the euro area, we get consumer confidence for January. It has improved since last summer and we expect to see a modest increase for January as the labour market still shows strength. We also get euro area PMIs for January. We expect both manufacturing and service PMIs to increase.
- In the UK, the main event is the Supreme Court ruling on Tuesday. It seems as if Theresa May has accepted that parliament needs to be involved in the Brexit negotiation process, as she has mentioned the final deal will be put to a vote in both Houses of Parliament.
Global macro and market themes
- Trump inauguration, May’s Brexit speech and China’s presence at Davos may well mark the end of the world as we know it.
- Markets taking a relatively relaxed view on risk with the VIX index trading close to decade lows...
- ...and awaiting a more concrete economic policy announcement from the Trump administration.
- The possible shift towards more protectionism may well hurt the global economic outlook.
- We are bullish on Russia, which is a likely winner from the new era.
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