Analysis

London Weakest In UK For House Prices In September

LONDON (Alliance News) - UK house prices increased at a slower pace in September, data published by the Nationwide Building Society showed Friday.

London became the weakest performing region for first time since 2005, with house prices down 0.6% year-on-year. On a national level, house prices grew 2% in September from the previous year, following August's 2.1% increase. Economists had forecast a marginal 0.1% increase.

"We would expect a modest rise in Bank Rate, by itself, to have only a modest impact on economic activity," Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said.

"Indeed, if rates are raised to 0.5%, monetary policy settings will still be a little more supportive than they were before Bank Rate was lowered to 0.25% in August 2016," Gardner added.

Providing the economy does not weaken further, the impact of a small rise in interest rates on UK households is likely to be modest, the economist said.

The house price data, together with a consumer confidence survey, marked the start of a big day in UK economic data, with GDP and lending figures to follow later Friday morning.

Here is what you need to know at the London market open:
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MARKETS
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FTSE 100: up 0.2% at 7,340.60
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Hang Seng: up 0.4% at 27,522.88
Nikkei 225: closed flat at 20,356.28
DJIA: closed up 0.2% at 22,381.20
S&P 500: closed up 0.1% at 2,510.06
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GBP: down at USD1.3418 (USD1.3448)
EUR: flat at USD1.1789 (USD1.1785)

GOLD: flat at USD1,286.05 per ounce (USD1,284.56)
OIL (Brent): down at USD57.06 a barrel (USD57.65)

(changes since previous London equities close)
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ECONOMICS AND GENERAL
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Friday's Key Economic Events still to come

UK Bank of England 20 Years On Conference concludes

09:30 BST UK quarterly national accounts
09:30 BST UK balance of payments
09:30 BST UK money and credit - lending to individuals, lending to businesses
09:30 BST UK business investment revised results
09:30 BST UK index of services

09:30 CET EU EuroCOIN indicator of euro area economic activity
11:00 CET EU flash estimate euro area inflation
08:45 CET France PPI
08:45 CET France household consumption expenditure in manufactured goods
08:45 CET France provisional CPI
08:00 CET Germany retail trade
10:00 CET Germany labour market statistics (incl unemployment)
11:00 CET Italy provisional CPI
12:00 CET Italy PPI

08:30 EDT US Personal Income & Outlays
09:45 EDT US ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
10:00 EDT US University of Michigan Survey of Consumers
11:00 EDT US Fed Philadelphia President Harker speaks on the economic outlook
08:30 EDT Canada GDP
08:30 EDT Canada industrial product & raw materials price indexes
14:00 EDT Bank of Canada weekly financial statistics
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Consumer confidence in the UK improved slightly in September, the latest survey from GfK revealed with an index score of -9. That beat forecasts for a reading of -11, and it was up from -10. But it still remained firmly in negative territory, signalling that pessimists outnumber optimists.
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Germany's retail sales logged a steady growth in August, figures from Destatis showed. Retail sales climbed 2.8% year-on-year in August, the same rate of growth as seen in the July. Sales were forecast to rise at a faster pace of 3.2%. Retail sales growth for July was revised up from 2.7%.
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Leaders from the EU member states are set to gather in Tallinn on Friday to discuss Europe's future in the digital arena and how to ensure that the bloc remains globally competitive amidst constant technological advances. Estonia, which currently holds of the EU's rotating presidency, organized the meeting to draw attention to potential lags in Europe's digitalization efforts - both in the public and private sectors - and chart the future for a digitally advanced EU.
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there was a "high degree of agreement between Germany and France" on reforms needed in the EU. The proposals laid out by French President Emmanuel Macron to reform the EU give a "good boost to development," Merkel said in Estonian capital Tallinn. The trip is Merkel's first meeting with her EU counterparts since winning a fourth term in office on Sunday.
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Japan's industrial production in August increased by 2.1% and its inflation climbed by 0.7% in comparison to the previous month, the government said. Contributing to the production increase was a rebound in semiconductor manufacturing equipment and other industrial machinery. The 2.1% rise, in comparison to the previous month, follows a 0.8% fall in July, the Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry said in a preliminary report. Meanwhile, inflation in Japan picked up in August on the back of higher energy prices, government data showed. Japan's core consumer price index rose 0.7% from a year earlier, the Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications said. The same ministry also confirmed that the unemployment rate stayed flat at 2.8%.
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US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is due to begin his second official visit to Beijing, during which he will discuss the nuclear threat from North Korea, US-China trade and an upcoming trip by President Donald Trump. Tillerson is expected to land in Beijing on Friday and meet with senior Chinese officials on Saturday.
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Russia and Turkey have agreed to cooperate closely to end the Syrian conflict and prevent the disintegration of Iraq, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday in Ankara after meeting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Putin said that, although the path had not been easy, conditions had been created in Syria for ending the war, "for total elimination of terrorists and the return of Syrians to peaceful life." He was speaking at a joint press conference with Erdogan during which both leaders described each other as friends.
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Erdogan reiterated his stance that the referendum conducted Monday in Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region, in which more than 92% of participants voted in favour of establishing an independent state, had no legitimacy. "Unfortunately the regional government, in conducting the referendum despite all friendly warnings, made a big mistake," Erdogan said. Erdogan had previously threatened to cut exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq and did not rule out the possibility of military intervention.
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BROKER RATING CHANGES
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BARCLAYS RAISES ITV TO 'OVERWEIGHT' ('EQUAL WEIGHT') - TARGET 200 (190) PENCE
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BARCLAYS CUTS WPP TO 'EQUAL WEIGHT' ('OVERWEIGHT') - TARGET 1575 (1840) PENCE
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INVESTEC RAISES ANTOFAGASTA TO 'BUY' ('HOLD')
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MACQUARIE RAISES PETROFAC TO 'OUTPERFORM' ('NEUTRAL') - TARGET 540 (890) PENCE
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COMPANIES - FTSE 100
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Aviva has agreed to sell its shareholding in its Italian joint venture. The insurer said it has agreed to sell its shareholding in Avipop Assicurazioni to Banco BPM for GBP233 million in cash. Banco BPM is Aviva's partner in the joint venture, and Aviva had held 50%, plus a controlling share. Aviva said its decision to sell its stake follows a notification received by the company in late June that Banco BPM does not intend to renew its bancassurance agreement with Aviva. The original bancassurance agreement included an option for Aviva to sell its entire shareholding to Banco BPM if the agreement was terminated. In 2016, the joint venture contributed GBP200.0 million to Aviva's IFRS net assets and generated approximately GBP14.0 million to IFRS operating pretax profit. The sale is expected to complete in 2018.
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COMPANIES - FTSE 250
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Beazley said its early estimate of the net cost of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria and the series of recent earthquakes in Mexico is USD175 million to USD275 million. The insurer said it is holding "substantial catastrophe margins and estimates" that at the midpoint would reduce 2017 earnings by around USD150 million. "Currently there is significant uncertainty surrounding the cost of these events," Beazley said.
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QinetiQ Says Trading In Line With Expectations; FY Outlook Unchanged
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Sanne Group Agrees To Buy Luxembourg Investment Solutions, Compliance Partners; Initial Acquisition Value Payable Is EUR55M In Cash And Shares; Earn-Out Payment Could Raise Total Consideration To Max EUR100M; LIS Is Alternative Asset Manager With EUR8.3B Under Administration; Says Acquisition To Be Immediately Earnings Enhancing
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COMPANIES - LONDON MAIN MARKET AND AIM
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Carillion H1 Pretax Loss GBP1.15B Vs GBP4M YoY; Revenue GBP2.50B Vs GBP2.49B; Dividend Suspended Vs 5.8 Pence Per Share; Says FY Results To Be "Lower" Than Market Expectations; Says FY Revenue Expected To Be Between GBP4.6B And GBP4.8B; CEO Says Results Were "Disappointing"
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The UK Civil Aviation Authority has told Ryanair Holdings it has until 5 pm London time on Friday to meet obligations to thousands of customers affected by flight cancellations, Sky News reported. The CAA has ordered Ryanair to tell passengers they are entitled to reimbursement of their expenses and to be rerouted with another carrier, as well as to commit to help passengers who have chosen an "unsuitable" option due after being mislead, according to Sky News.
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COMPANIES - INTERNATIONAL
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The former head of development at Porsche, Wolfgang Hatz, has been detained in connection with the emissions-rigging scandal that has gripped Germany's auto industry, according to news reports. Hatz's detainment was ordered by an investigative judge, the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper and public broadcasters NDR and WDR reported on Thursday. Chief prosecutor Andrea Grape said officials had widened their investigation to include Hatz, a close confidant of former Volkswagen chief executive Martin Winterkorn and a key figure in the development of Volkswagen engines in recent years. The prosecution service gave no further details, and a spokesman for VW refused to comment.
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Steel maker ArcelorMittal announced a USD1 billion, three-year investment programme at its Mexican operations, which is focussed on building ArcelorMittal Mexico's downstream capabilities, sustaining the competitiveness of its mining operations and modernising its existing asset base. ArcelorMittal noted that the main investment will be construction of a new hot strip mill. Construction will take approximately three years and, upon completion, will enable ArcelorMittal Mexico to produce about 2.5 million tonnes of flat rolled steel.
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Friday's Shareholder Meetings

Purplebricks Group
MediaZest
Legendary Investments
Shearwater Group
Torotrak
Trafalgar New Homes
AVEVA Group (re merger with Schneider Electric)

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