Analysis

Lights out for Consumer Sentiment amid reboot of economy

In more than 40 years, never before have the lights gone out so quickly for the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumer Sentiment. The drop in current condition was almost double the prior record set in October 2008.

Roughly Twice as Bad as October 2008

  • The decline in the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumer Sentiment was the largest one-month plunge on record. However, the preliminary print of 71.0 for April is still 15.7 points higher than the November 2008 low.
  • The bottom fell out beneath the current conditions index, which shed 31.3 points, nearly doubling the prior record drop of 16.6 points set in October 2008

But Hope is Not Lost

  • To the extent that any silver linings can be found in today’s report, the expectations index only fell 9.7 points. That is a considerable decline, but not nearly as bad as the record 16.5-point drop in December of 1980. Had it not been for this faith in tomorrow and hope for what is on the other side of this crisis, the drop in confidence would have been worse.
  • We expect a record contraction in consumer spending in Q2

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