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Analysis

Latin America elections outlook: The shift to the political right is in motion

Summary

Always—but especially over the next twelve months—political developments across Latin America will be paramount for investors and corporates with exposure to the region. Rapid policy change across the major Latin American economies could take shape depending on election outcomes, while local financial markets may experience sharp pre- and post-election volatility as policy platforms emerge and elections are decided. As we have noted in the past, we believe Latin America is headed toward its second "Conservative Wave"—an expression to reflect our view that right-leaning policy platforms will win all the upcoming elections through the end of next year. This "Conservative Wave" trend started in 2024, gathered momentum in 2025 and is still on track to continue in 2026. In this note, we offer updated views on major regional elections and policy platforms that could be implemented, along with our perspective on the longer-term direction of local currencies as a result of each election.

Download The Full Latin America elections outlook

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