Labor market still struggling to maintain traction
|Summary
The labor market remains in a precarious position. The three-month average pace of job growth is now just 22K through November, compared to 62K heading into today's report. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, marking a new high since the end of the pandemic. For now, our base case remains two 25 bps rate cuts at the March and June FOMC meetings, with the risks skewed toward more rather than fewer cuts in 2026.
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