Analysis

Iran Shoots Down US Drone: "You'll Soon Find Out" if US Plans Strike Says Trump

Is the US headed for a serious Mideast escalation and military attack on Iran? "We'll soon find out."

Iran shot down a US drone in the Gulf of Oman. The location is disputed. Iran claims the drone was over Iranian territory. The US claims the drone was in international air space.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard says Iran has no intention of going to war with any country but is ready according to the Wall Street Journal.

Less than a week after the U.S. accused Iran of attacking tankers, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said its air force brought down an American surveillance drone in a southern coastal region along the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC said the drone had violated its airspace and crashed into Iranian waters.

“This was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset in international airspace,” said Navy Capt. Bill Urban, spokesman for U.S. Central Command.

The drone was a RQ-4A Global Hawk that provides real-time intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions over vast ocean and coastal regions, said Capt. Urban. Manufactured by U.S.-based Northrop Grumman Corp. , the RQ-4A Global Hawk can fly for over 30 hours at a time and has a wingspan of about 130 feet—slightly wider than a Boeing 737 jet. Its price tag is $130 million, not counting research and development costs.

President Trump said Thursday that Iran may have shot the U.S. drone down unintentionally, adding that it was probably someone “loose and stupid” behind the action.

“I find it hard to believe that it was intentional,” Mr. Trump said.

On a possible response to the incident, Mr. Trump reiterated that “Iran made a big mistake,” but said that “you’ll find out” how he intends to respond. Mr. Trump didn’t rule out the possibility of future talks with Iran’s leadership, adding: “we’ll see what happens.”

Crash Sight

The Drone reportedly crashed in Iranian waters. But it is not clear where it was struck or where it landed.

Call it "close enough" to be attacked, most likely purposely.

If a country wants war, it can get war.

Unprovoked Attack?

Fox News has this headline: US Navy drone shot down by Iranian missile over Strait of Hormuz in 'unprovoked attack'.

Flying military drones over another country's airspace is certainly a provocation.

I suggest the US provoked a response, even if the drone was in international airspace.

Is 200 feet close enough? 20? One foot inside?

Location Claims

CNN has additional coverage including UN statements and additional maps.

A spokesman for UN Secretary General António Guterres issued this statement: "The Secretary-General is very concerned about developments in the Gulf region, including the reported downing of a United States drone by Iran. He appeals to all sides to exercise maximum restraint and avoid any action that can escalate the already tense situation. The Secretary-General stresses that the world cannot afford a major confrontation in the Gulf region."

Department of Defense Claim

Talking Down the Incident

For now, Trump appears to be talking down the incident, even suggesting he is open to meeting with Iran.

Nancy Pelosi commented "I don't think the President wants to go to war".

“I think it's a dangerous situation,” said Pelosi in today’s press conference when talking about Iran. “The high-tension wires are up in the region. We have to be strong and strategic about how we protect our interests. We also cannot be reckless in what we do.”

However, she doesn't believe President Trump wants to go to war, she said.

“There's no appetite for going to war in our country," Pelosi said. "I don't think the President wants to go to war."

No Appetite for War

Pelosi is undoubtedly correct in her assertion that the US public has no appetite for war. However, the public does not call the shots.

If the war hawks want to provoke a war and Trump is willing to go along, there will be another destabilizing war.

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