Analysis

Industrial Production Hums Along

Industrial production (IP) rose 0.3% in September as mining and durable goods manufacturing advanced. Solid production of business equipment bodes well for Q3 GDP, but IP is likely to moderate in the coming months.

Mining Matters

  • Industrial production remained solid in September, advancing 0.3%. The impact from Hurricane Florence was fairly minor— less than 0.1 percentage point–the Fed estimates.

  • Higher oil prices have continued to support mining activity, which was up 0.5% in September and 13.4% over the past year.

  • Manufacturing rose 0.2% amid gains in motor vehicles and machinery, bringing the year-ago rate to a six-year high.

Moderation in Store

  • After a 0.8% gain last month, production of business equipment rose at an 8.0% clip in the third quarter. That points to another decent print for equipment spending for Q3 GDP.

  • Nevertheless, total industrial production slowed over the quarter. We expect to see further moderation in the coming months amid slower global growth, a strong dollar, ongoing trade tensions and rising rates.

 

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